I see your point about economic booms & busts. I think some things make this one different (all this strictly my lay opinion):
1. I thought the option ARMs were so much rope a number of years ago (as in give someone enough, they'll hang themselves.)
2. Point #1 was exacerbated by greedy brokers writing fraudulent mortgage paper.
3. This fraudulent paper gets mixed in with perfectly legit, albeit risky, other subprime paper and gets sold to a hedge fund.
4. Said hedge fund is insured by AIG.
5. Housing prices crash, and ARMs reset, setting off the detonator!
6. Banks become super risk-averse, not lending. Credit enters an Ice Age.
7. The whole economy is dragged down by this mess.
Here's why I think the "bailouts" are the best of a bunch of lousy options: a. Very early data suggest that they may be working. b. This won't be the first time (S&L meltdown, anyone?) that the Fed has had to step in.
Maybe my crystal ball has a bog divot in it. But I think letting the economy "right itself" may take a lot longer (like Japan); but Americans do have a different temperament, and the oil shocks and recession have demonstrated that we can change our habits.
OK, I've rambled on WAY too long!![]()
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